49ers vs. Seahawks: Thursday Night Football Player Prop Best Bets:
I tend to get a little too excited for action on Thursday Night Football, like the last two weeks when I tried out rushing props for two backup RBs (dumb). So this week, I’m keeping it simple with two basic props that I feel great about.
Speaking of feeling great, that’s how I feel about the official picks I’ve made on “Prop Points” on VSIN so far. Back in Week 4, I lost power heading into Friday, so I could not do the show. However, I’m told my 10 official picks, which I submitted Thursday before I lost power, were given out on the air in the usual time slot for the show (2-3 pm ET) on 9/20. And since I went 9-1, I’m counting it!
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I was also 9-1 in Week 5, which brings my overall record of official picks made on the show, to 45-14, or 76%. I’m already protecting a big lead, so I’m going to be judicious with my official selections. But I have also been adding leans, and last week my results were very good (I believe they were 12-4, and I know they were 3-1 for MNF).
But to open up Week 6 on TNF, I’m extremely high on George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, so I like all their Overs. But again, for my official selections, I’ll keep it simple with these two picks:
George Kittle Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -115
Brandon Aiyuk Over 64.5 Receiving Yards – 120
The data in this matchup clearly points to Kittle and Aiyuk. The Seahawks have played single-high on 66% or more of the snaps in three of five games this year, including each of their last two. They’ve played it the seventh-most overall this season. Aiyuk averages 3.46 YPRR against single-high (sixth-most and a 64% boost) and sees a +28.5% TPRR boost against it. Seattle also runs Cover 1 27.6% of the time, and Aiyuk kills man coverage with a 33.3% Win Rate and 45% win rate vs man. He will see a tough matchup often against Riq Woolen, but Aiyuk is a handful for any corner, and he’s back on track after a big game last week. As for Deebo Samuel, who still looks slowed by his calf issue, he sees his YPRR decrease -30.3% against single-high, so this doesn’t look like a Deebo game.
It’s also a good spot for Brock Purdy to push the ball down the field. Purdy leads the league in multiple “Time To Throw” metrics, and Seahawks rank eighth slowest in TTP (time to pressure) at 2.66 and tied for first with the slowest average time to sack at 4.3. Purdy also ranks second in aDot at 10.5 and first in YPA amongst current starting QBs at 8.75.
As for Kittle, he averages a strong 2.67 YPRR against single-high since the start of 2023, which leads all TEs and constitutes a +46.7% boost. The Seahawks have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs and the fourth-highest target share to inline players (13.9%). Per our charting, Seattle has yet to force an incompletion against in-line TEs this year, and they’re giving up the second most YPA to in-line TEs at 10.80 yards. Kittle’s in-line route percentage this year is 54% and he is second on the team in target share against single-high coverage.
For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.
