Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Eric Hosmer, Dylan Cease and Zack Greinke on Thursday, April 27th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on each of them.
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Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, April 27:
We’ve been doing pretty well with these plays recently, so we’re taking a big plus-money shot on Eric Hosmer to deliver against his former team. Hosmer is a guy that people like to rip on a bit, but he is still capable of coming up with big hits — especially against right-handed pitching. Today, he gets a crack at a very beatable righty, as the Padres are sending Seth Lugo to the mound.
Lugo is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA for San Diego this season, but some big-time regression is imminent. Lugo had a 5.15 ERA the last time he spent a season as a starter, and it’s just hard to envision him pitching this well for much longer. Lugo has also been a guy that has struggled on the road throughout his career, and he’ll now need to try and buck that trend against a Cubs team that is playing some good baseball this season.
Chicago might be an underdog in this game, but I like the team’s chances of winning this outright. With that being the case, I wanted to find some value on the Cubs’ hitters and Hosmer is the one that stood out. Let’s hope for one RBI!
Bet: Hosmer Over 0.5 RBIs (+220)
Dylan Cease struggled a bit against the Rays on Saturday, April 22nd, as he gave up three earned on six hits in only 4.0 innings of work. The 27-year-old also struck out only five batters in that game, but we’re hoping he shakes it off and racks up some strikeouts for us on Thursday.
Cease has always been electric when pitching in Chicago, so he should be a little more comfortable attacking this Tampa Bay lineup tonight. The Rays have also been striking out far less this year than they have in recent seasons. And while that likely has a lot to do with approach, it’s also a result of a small sample size. With that said, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Rays were to start whiffing a bit more moving forward.
Cease should be able to dial in and get himself back on track here. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and will be out to prove it in this electric matchup.
Bet: Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Zack Greinke pitched 5.1 innings of two-run ball against the Twins on March 30th, but we’re thinking he’ll go a bit shorter this time out. For starters, Greinke has already struggled a bit on the road this season, as he has a 6.30 ERA in the two starts he has made away from home. And that has been a theme for Greinke since he went back to the Royals last season.
Greinke is also a pitcher that mostly uses smoke and mirrors at this point in his career. The 39-year-old just tries to fool hitters with off-speed stuff, and that makes it hard to believe Minnesota won’t find a way to beat up on him a bit here. The Twins should know exactly what they’re dealing with after having already faced him this season.
Overall, it’s just hard to expect this to be a lengthy outing from Greinke. So, we’re rolling with the under on his outs recorded.
Bet: Greinke Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-128)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +961 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
