Best Bets on Today’s MLB Player Props Market
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. As always, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals. However, I’m tackling player props here, and I’m targeting Michael Kopech, Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz on Thursday, July 20th. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting on all of them.
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Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, July 20th:
Kopech had been horrible before going on a 15-day stint on the IL, and his first start back was a nightmare. Kopech was unable to make it through one inning against the Atlanta Braves, walking four batters and giving up four earned runs in 0.2 innings of action. He threw 38 pitches in his first inning in that one, and he’ll now hope to reset against the Mets. Fortunately, that’s a matchup that should have him excited to get out there.
Before combining to score 16 runs over the last two games, the Mets had scored two or fewer runs in four straight. This is very much a hot-and-cold offense, and it’s one that Kopech should be able to take advantage of. For as bad as he has been lately, the 27-year-old has some electric swing-and-miss stuff. The righty has had at least five strikeouts in 11 of his 17 starts this season, and that’s the number we’d need him to hit tonight. And the fact that we’re getting it at +135 odds is outrageous, even if he is in a bad way right now.
Kopech is a guy that has had five starts in which he has racked up at least nine strikeouts this season. I’m banking on him to get back in the swing of things, even if it’s a high-strikeout, low-inning performance.
Bet: Kopech Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+135)
Kyle Gibson is coming into this start after having allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven outings. The veteran righty has also allowed at least three earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season. With that said, Gibson goes Over tonight’s earned runs total more often than not, and he now faces a Rays team that is first in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Tampa Bay is struggling coming into this game, which is why this number isn’t heavily juiced to the Over or just listed at 3.5. But I think this is a good opportunity for the Rays to snap out of their recent funk, as Gibson can struggled with his control and gives up a lot of hard contact. It won’t take much for Tampa Bay’s hitters to do some damage on the scoreboard.
Bet: Gibson Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
Steven Matz is coming off a start in which he only pitched 4.1 innings against the Washington Nationals on July 15th. But the lefty threw 86 pitches in that game, which is the most he has thrown since May 24th. Matz had previously spent time in the bullpen for St. Louis, so it’s big that he is stretched out again. Now, Matz should be able to work a bit deeper in games, and I think he’ll hit the 5.1-inning mark against the Cubs here.
Matz threw 3.1 innings of shutout ball against the Cubs on June 24th, and this is a matchup that suits him rather nicely. I’m not saying Matz will go out there and throw 7.0 innings, but I do expect him to work into the sixth inning here. And if he does that, there’s a very good chance he ends up cashing this.
Bet: Matz Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +738 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!
