How Seven New NFL Head Coaches Will Impact Their Teams:
As the New York Yankees owner, George Steinbrenner had a well-earned reputation for being quick to fire the manager. He wasn’t interested in excuses; he expected winning results immediately. In Steinbrenner’s first 23 seasons, he changed managers 20 times; Billy Martin was fired and rehired five times. The job offered little security as Steinbrenner believed a slight alteration could offer in-season results. If George owned an NFL team, he would have needed to change. In football, a head coach is rarely fired during the season, and an interim coach who is hired for the following season rarely works out. However, rapid change can occur when a brand-new coach brings a new system, a new teaching method, and a new offense and defense.
Let’s face it: Coaching matters in the NFL, from the head coach to the coordinators. Sometimes it’s as simple as placing the existing players in their correct places, asking them to do what they are capable of. Managing the game to avoid losing is important. All of this sounds elementary in theory, yet it is often hard to practice.
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We enter the 2024 NFL season with a somewhat predictable seven new head coaches. Regardless of the contracts or what occurred the prior season, the NFL always has a six-to-seven coach turnover rate. Dan Quinn, Jim Harbaugh, and Raheem Morris are receiving their second opportunities to be head coaches in the NFL. Meanwhile, Mike Macdonald, Jerod Mayo, Dave Canales, and Brian Callahan are getting their first crack at leading a team.
Mayo and Callahan were never coordinators of their respective areas of specialization, as neither called plays. Canales was a first-year coordinator, and Macdonald was in his second season.
To be successful in your first year, a new coach needs to recognize the team’s main problems and then have a systematic plan to solve those issues. The coach who can best identify the problem and then solve it will be the person who turns their franchise around. The hiring process isn’t as simple as “we need someone who can fix the quarterback or the defense”. Those are the obvious problems that everyone understands. The best of these seven will be the coach who can solve the obvious one and all the others.
Which of the seven will make an impact? Let’s examine each one, starting with the second-chance coaches.
Jim Harbaugh – Los Angeles Chargers
Harbaugh is 44-19-1 as a head coach in the NFL, with a 5-3 playoff record and one Super Bowl appearance. Harbaugh wasn’t fired from the 49ers. He was caught in a power struggle and left for his alma mater, Michigan.
Harbaugh only knows how to be a head coach. He has been nothing else, other than a player. He spent one season as a quarterback assistant with the Raiders, then became a head coach in college. He was destined to become a head coach. His leadership skills are elite, and his ultra-competitive nature becomes infused into his team’s culture. He has made every team he has led much tougher, the old-fashioned way — with hard work, practicing football, tackling, being physical and playing hard for 60 minutes.
Harbaugh isn’t a schemer; he is a leader of the team in all three phases — a big difference. He will manage the game and coach the coaches. He isn’t afraid to make decisions or alter the plan. His situational football acumen is excellent, and that alone will give the Chargers an opportunity to win close games. Harbaugh will make a difference from the first game, and as the year goes along, his team will improve.
The Chargers found the right person to solve their problems, as they previously were not considered a physically or mentally tough team. They were soft front runners and had no accountability as they placed the burden of winning solely on star quarterback Justin Herbert. That all changed the day Harbaugh walked in the door. And for me, this was by far the best hire of the offseason, worthy of betting their Over win total. By mid-October, the Chargers will be tough, playing with great pad level and most of their opponents will be tailoring off.
Raheem Morris – Atlanta
In 2009, Morris took over for Jon Gruden in Tampa. The Bucs had finished 9-7 the year before, and since their Super Bowl win in 2002, they had two losing Wild Card appearances. That caused the Glazer family, owners of the Bucs, to remove Gruden and hire Morris. Morris won three games his first year, then 10 the following season without making the playoffs. In Year 3, he went 4-12 and was relieved of his duties.
Overall, Morris was 17-31 as head coach. He was hired in Tampa at age 33, let go at 35, and nine years later served as the interim coach of the Falcons, winning four of the 11 games while he was in charge but not retained.
Returning to Atlanta, Morris is more mature and experienced. He understands his downfalls from the Tampa days. However, the Falcons’ expectations might be a tad unrealistic. Morris is a good defensive coach who can make in-game adjustments when he has the right type of talent.
Since the Falcons have neglected the defense in the draft for years, he doesn’t have a great front or a secondary that would allow him to cut it loose. Jimmy Lake, who was with Morris in Los Angeles, will assume the play-calling duties on defense, which means Morris will oversee the gameday operation.
I respect Morris as a coach, but my issue is that last year’s staff wasn’t the problem. They didn’t have a quarterback who could protect the ball or a defense that could pressure the passer. This year, they do have a quarterback, but there is still no pressure from their defense that can force turnovers.
They also lack explosive playmakers on offense. They have no speed. They need to put 6-10 play drives together to score, which makes life hard for any offense. They finished 25th in percent of drives ending with scores and 17th in yards gained. Who is going to be their down-the-field playmaker? Drake London averaged 13 yards a catch. Was this all Arthur Smith’s fault? I doubt it.
Morris will have his work cut out for him, improving the coaching from a year ago. Will he? Call me concerned.
Dan Quinn – Washington Commanders
After going 0-5 in his sixth season, along with the 2016 memory of the Super Bowl meltdown, and two more 7-9 seasons, the Falcons front office removed Quinn in 2020. Quinn then went to Dallas to reinvent himself as a defensive coordinator. Three straight top-10 seasons in points allowed gave Quinn the opportunity to become a head coach once again.
Taking over a downtrodden Washington team with little organization or discipline, Quinn’s positive energy will be a huge uplift for a franchise riddled with the memories of a horrible owner. Quinn is a player-friendly coach who is ultra-positive in the Pete Carroll style. The new vibe, along with new players, will make Washington better than it was last year. How could they be any worse?
Quinn will have initial success. His tenure won’t be defined by his accomplishments in 2024 but rather by how he builds the team through rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. If Daniels is good, Quinn might get a second contract. If he is average, then he won’t.
Jerod Mayo – New England Patriots
When I was in New England, many staff members would sit around in the kitchen having lunch and talk about the future of the Patriots without Bill Belichick. To a man, no one wanted to be the one who followed him. History wasn’t on their side. From Phil Bengtson replacing Vince Lombardi to Bill “Tiger” Johnson replacing Paul Brown, to even Jimmy Johnson replacing Don Shula, replacing a legend can harm a career.
Any change will be viewed positively at first, as a breath of fresh air. If the losing begins, many will long for yesterday; the old way, saying it was never like this when the legend was here. It’s an impossible situation for an experienced coach, and even more impossible for a coach like Jerod Mayo who has only been in coaching for five years.
Mayo has a staff that is triple the size of Belichick’s staff, which implies he has help all over. As the great entrepreneur and investor Naval Ravikant once said, “If you want to make a bad decision, ask everyone for advice.”
The Patriots lost seven games by six or fewer points as their offense couldn’t protect or consistently move the ball. Does Mayo help solve the offensive problems? No. The strength of the Patriots last season was their defense. Eight teams scored fewer than 21 points, which resulted in only two wins. Can the Patriots play as good of a defense with Mayo as they did with Belichick overseeing the operation? I doubt it, which is why the Patriots’ four wins from a year ago might be hard to duplicate.
Brian Callahan – Tennessee
In Cincinnati, Callahan never called plays, but he helped develop Joe Burrow, which made him a head coaching candidate. General manager Ran Carthon is all in on Will Levis, and Callahan was selected to make sure the 25-year-old is the Titans quarterback for the next 10 years.
It’s hard to predict Callahan’s ability to make Levis great, as Burrow could handle being in a spread attack and carrying the team. Levis cannot do that. He needs a ground game — a balanced attack to offset his inconsistent throws.
It takes a huge leap of faith to believe Levis can improve, Callahan can be as good a coach as former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, and that the Titans are headed in the right direction.
Callahan is young. Fortunately, he has his father, Bill, the former head coach at Oakland, to offer wisdom and advice. Pops is a premier offensive line coach, which will help offset one of the Titans’ many weaknesses. However, tying everything together will require Brian to get Levis to avoid mistakes and handle the offense. No disrespect to Brian, but I am not sure Bill Walsh could save Levis.
Dave Canales – Carolina Panthers
Sometimes, the people who know you the best never give you the opportunity. Dave Canales was hired by Pete Carroll while at USC and journeyed north with him to Seattle. He started his career with Carroll as a strength coach, tight end coach, assistant quarterback coach, passing game coordinator, and then full-time quarterback coach.
But Carroll never handed the offense over to him. He bypassed Canales for other offensive coordinators, causing him to leave for Tampa to get control of an offense. Then, by succeeding with Baker Mayfield, Canales became a head coach. It’s a significant jump, which makes me wonder what Carroll was thinking for the past 11 years.
One thing Canales has going for him is how badly Bryce Young and the Panthers offense was coached last season. The only way for Canales to go is up. The Panthers have to improve — which they will. How much? That’s a fair question.
Much like Quinn in Washington, the Panthers will improve next season. Canales will work much harder than former coach Frank Reich. His enthusiasm will motivate the defense to play at a higher level. Most importantly, because of their horrible reputation, the Panthers will be viewed as an easy win on the schedule.
Mike Macdonald – Seattle Seahawks
Here is an excerpt of what I wrote about Macdonald on our VSiN website:
Over the last three seasons, Seattle was 20-13 at home, and because the defense Carroll invented spread around to other teams like wildfire, it became antiquated. Many former Carroll assistants copied his defensive approach, which caused offensive coordinators to understand how to attack and be more confident in doing so, especially when the defensive line wasn’t dominating. Eventually, Carroll tried to change and shift his philosophy, but after 14 years, time ran out.
Enter Macdonald, a 36-year-old defensive specialist charged with taking all the positives Carroll provided to the organization and adding his original style. General manager John Schneider, who was hired by Carroll, now has the authority to create and mold the team into this new partnership. Schneider was a loyal soldier to Carroll, carrying out his philosophy with each player acquired. They had a tremendous partnership.
Even though Carroll had all the authority to make the decisions, he respected Schneider’s opinion and listened to his advice. Schneider is a great evaluator, a daring decision-maker, and isn’t concerned about what others think. He believes what he sees from the tape, not what he hears from outside perception. When everyone said he was crazy to trade Russell Wilson, two years later, Schneider looked like a savant.
Macdonald’s scheme and coaching in Baltimore last season were outstanding. He gained high-level production from two players who weren’t even on the roster at the start of training camp. Kyle Van Noy left the Pat McAfee Show to produce nine sacks, and Jadeveon Clowney had the best year of his career, producing nine and a half sacks and getting a hefty contract from the Panthers.
Macdonald’s scheme blended perfectly with the personnel. He highlighted the strengths of Kyle Hamilton, using him as a quasi-linebacker, safety, nickel defender and blitzer. His scheme covered the deficiencies in their secondary, and by playing from in front in most games, he kept teams from exploiting his run defense. In three of their five losses, teams that could run the ball effectively rushed for over 135 yards won the game. The Ravens ranked 25th in yards allowed on the ground and sixth in facing passing attempts, as their opponents were concerned about handling the unorthodox blitz pressures from all angles.
What’s most fascinating is the Ravens played with a +42 point differential after two quarters, ranking 31st in facing passing attempts. Normally, playing from behind forces teams to throw, but against the Macdonald-led Ravens defense, that wasn’t the case. The Ravens allowed only 16.5 points per game and held their opponent to 10 points or fewer seven times.
They were the second-best red zone team in the league, the seventh-best on third down, created 25 fumbles and recovered 13. They had 18 interceptions and allowed only 191.9 yards passing per game. The Ravens used different combinations of players, moving them around, creating confusion for the offense. This new approach will create problems for teams traveling to the Pacific Northwest and dealing with the loud Seahawk fans.
I think Macdonald is worth pizza money for Coach of the Year, as I believe Seattle will be a tough team in 2024. His strength is exactly what Seattle needed.
