MLB Best Bets and Props:
We are back for another glorious Saturday of baseball following the All-Star break and some MLB best bets and props. However, it is a tricky time for betting on baseball due to several atypical variables at play.
First, starting pitchers perform very differently when throwing with additional rest. One would think additional time off would be a good thing, which it is for some, but many pitchers are creatures of habit that need consistency in their schedule. This creates an unknown that makes handicapping more difficult.
Top MLB Resources:
You can certainly research past results to see how certain pitchers perform with extra rest. Unfortunately, several other variables further complicate things.
Most bullpens are fresh coming out of the break, allowing managers to pull their starting pitchers at the first sign of trouble. This adds risk to first five wagers, in addition to adding further variance to full-game sides.
By the way, never trust bullpens.
Another issue to consider for the next two weeks is the MLB Trade Deadline. Many players, primarily pitchers, will be on the market. This will make their in-game availability harder to predict as teams look to protect their trade assets.
In other words, there are a few extra things to consider this weekend when placing your prop bets. I recommend being extra careful, leaning towards the Under in pitcher props, and reducing your overall betting volume for the next few days.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams.
Saturday MLB Betting Leans
As stated above, this weekend is somewhat complicated due to several atypical variables coming out of the All-Star break.
I recommend being extra careful. Be sure to wait for lineups to post so you can take advantage of as much information as possible.
As such, instead of my typical weekend article, I am providing you with several leans to consider.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
4:10 PM ET
- Roddery Muñoz: Under 4.5 K (-135)
- Mets -0.5 First Five (-120)
The Mets have a clear advantage on the mound with Luis Severino taking on Roddery Muñoz, who has failed to reach Over 4.5 strikeouts in five of his last six outings.
In addition, New York carries a mere 20.9% K rate over the last 30 days with an 11.3% swinging strike rate and a 26.4% chase rate.
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 PM ET
- Cristopher Sanchez: Under 5.5 K (-130)
- Luis Ortiz: Under 4.5 K (-140)
The Pirates are typically a solid matchup to target for starting pitchers, especially when it comes to strikeouts. However, Sanchez sports a less-than-stellar 20.6% K rate this season and has not hit Over 5.5 strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 games on the road.
San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians
7:10 PM ET
- Gavin Williams: Under 4.5 K (-140)
The Padres are a brutal matchup for any starting pitcher. Over the last 30 days, San Diego boasts a 16.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching.
Williams has tallied just two strikeouts in two of his three starts at the major league level this season.
