Pittsburgh Panthers:

The state of Pitt football is in the hands of a 31-year-old. New OC Kade Bell was brought in to right the major wrong that Pat Narduzzi made by hiring Frank Cignetti. The Panthers offense stagnated and the team went from scoring 41.4 points per game in 2021 to 31.2 PPG in 2022 to 20.2 in 2023. We know that Narduzzi still has some defensive chops, but the ACC punished the Panthers last year.

Pitt won three games and only two were over FBS opponents, including one of the most random results of the year with a 38-21 win over Louisville. Narduzzi should still have some defensive chops, but after the team’s worst win-loss season since the late ‘90s, large questions linger.

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Offense

Bell’s Western Carolina Catamounts had a pretty prolific offense with 183 rushing yards and 321 passing yards per game. They scored 38 points per game and had 57 red-zone trips. Pitt tied for the fewest red-zone attempts with 25. A new scheme could help, and Desmond Reid and Rodney Hammond Jr. are a quality 1-2 punch in the backfield.

But, who will play QB? Maybe Bell’s system can spark something, but Nate Yarnell, Christian Veilleux, and Eli Holstein all seem interchangeable. Yarnell beat Boston College late last year and finished with a 4/1 TD/INT ratio, but the WR room is mediocre and none of the QB options are proven.

Defense

With limited help from the offense, Pitt’s defense ranked 51st in yards per play allowed. Unfortunately, they’ve lost some impact players to the transfer portal and only have two returning starters. It will be a rebuild on the fly for Narduzzi and DC Randy Bates, as the entire front seven will be reimagined.

The defense only had 16 takeaways last year and 31 sacks. Narduzzi’s D had 48 sacks and finished second in the nation in 2022. They had 54 sacks in 2021 and tied for the national lead with 46 in 2020. Maybe a lack of returning starters and production is a good thing to wipe the slate clean.

Outlook

Pitt football is in a tough spot. Narduzzi is inked through 2030 and the transfer portal and NIL make it hard for a middle-of-the-road program like Pitt to get and keep high-end talent. It’ll all come down to scheme, which could shine on both sides of the ball, but the talent here is severely lacking. My numbers call for 5.34 wins, but three of Pitt’s favorite roles are -2 or lower.

Pick: Under 5.5 Wins