Italian Open best bets for Saturday, May 11th
It feels like tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with the final 1000-level event before the 2024 French Open. Over the next couple of days, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Italy, as the top players in the world compete in Rome. The Internazionali BNL d’Italia is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Saturday, May 11th.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
2024 Record: 270-284 (+27.14 units)
Dominik Koepfer vs. Frances Tiafoe – Rome
Dominik Koepfer is coming off an impressive straight-set win over Andrea Vavassori. However, the lefty is just 14-18 on clay in his ATP career, and he’s also just 1-5 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. This really isn’t his surface and that checks out when you think about his playing style. Koepfer is a big server that likes to slap shots from the baseline with a lot of power. And when he has it going with his forehand, that strategy can theoretically work anywhere. But I just like Tiafoe’s all-around game a little too much here. The American should be able to hold serve rather easily in this match, and he also happens to have a little more variety than Koepfer from the baseline. That’s important when talking about clay-court tennis, as there are more extended rallies than usual. On top of that, Tiafoe is capable of coming in and getting some easy points at the net.
Bet: Tiafoe ML (-115 – 1.5 units)
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Rome
Hamad Medjedovic is a player to keep an eye on moving forward. The Serbian has the full backing of Novak Djokovic, who mentors him and helps fund his career. And the 20-year-old won the Next Gen Finals in 2023, showing that he is one of the better young players in the world. But Medjedovic is still relatively unproven at the ATP level. And while I was impressed with his win over Alexei Popyrin last match, beating Davidovich Fokina on clay is going to be a whole different animal. The Spaniard has been to a Masters 1000 final on clay, so he has proven that he is tough to beat on this surface. And overall, I like Davidovich Fokina’s baseline play to shine through here. This could be a match in which breaks are hard to come by. But that would favor Davidovich Fokina, who has the firepower to drive Medjedovic nuts.
Pick: Davidovich Fokina ML (-135)
Added Plays
Naomi Osaka ML (+120 – 1.5 units) vs. Daria Kasatkina [Rome]
Jan-Lennard Struff +3.5 Games (-150 -1.5 units) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas [Rome]
Madison Keys ML (-110) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia [Rome]
Friday’s Picks
Katie Boulter ML (-109 – 2 units) vs. Rebecca Sramkova [Rome]
Sofia Kenin +4.5 Games (-109 – 1.5 units) vs. Ons Jabeur [Rome]
