Week 1 College Football Best Bets from Steve Makinen:
After pouring through all sorts of different systems, trends, power ratings and more, all shown on the VSiN Analytics Report for Week 1, here are my college football Best Bets to open the season.
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Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is the only time all year that you will find me laying 40 points in a pair of games in any given week. My records show that it is the only way to go when you get big point spreads this time of year. Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in the opening Week(s) 0/1 of college football since 2013, going 14-0 SU and ATS!
Is the line warranted? Do the Sooners have what it takes to put up enough points to cover now that QB Dillon Gabriel has moved on to Oregon? In a word, yes. This is a mismatch, no doubt about it. Oklahoma is now in its third season under head coach Brent Venables, and the schemes are fully installed.
The Sooners were much better on both sides of the ball in 2023 than in 2022. I expect that pattern to continue. By the way, Jackson Arnold, a highly touted recruit a few years ago, takes over for Gabriel after attempting 59 passes last year. Temple, meanwhile, was 3-9 in 2023 and has lost its last six games as 20+ point dogs, both SU and ATS, including 55-0 to SMU last season. I expect this one to be very easy for Boomer Sooner.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 42.5 with Oklahoma
Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
One of my favorite parts of last week’s ESPN College GameDay show from Ireland came when the crew was discussing the TCU-Stanford game, and not a single analyst could think of a reason why Stanford would be competitive against TCU. I realize Stanford has been down recently, but what did TCU do last year to command such respect? The Horned Frogs were 5-7.
This won’t be an easy travel game for them. They are taking on a team with a lot of experience and excitement for the coming season. The timing could be ideal for second-year head coach Troy Taylor and Stanford in their move to the ACC, as the Cardinal bring back a wealth of experience to deal with their changing circumstances. They are also highly disciplined athletes. Eighteen starters return from last season’s 3-9 team, including QB Ashton Daniels, who showed some promise as a sophomore starter. I think this game will be highly competitive.
College Football Best Bet: Take the +9.5 with Stanford
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Head coach Curt Cignetti arrives in Bloomington this season to some fanfare and optimism, as he led the James Madison program to new heights the last couple of seasons. He also brings some of his former Dukes’ players with him. How they mesh with the holdovers from last year’s 3-9 Hoosiers team and how they adapt to the higher competition level in the Big Ten remains to be seen. This is not a stable situation out of the gate, regardless of what happens down the road. Are you ready to lay three TDs with this team? One that scored just 22.2 PPG in 2023.
FIU comes off back-to-back 4-8 seasons under head coach Mike MacIntyre but might have what it takes this year to climb a level or two in Conference USA. They bring 14 starters back, including QB Keyone Jenkins, who accounted for 17 TDs and showed some flashes in his freshman year last season. MacIntyre’s team had its first winning ATS road record in six years in 2023. I don’t think the Panthers will win here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hoosiers struggle out of the gate.
College Football Best Bet: Take FIU ATS as the +21.5 underdog
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The other game with the massive point spread that I like this week is Ohio State hosting Akron. This number is even bigger than the one in Temple-Oklahoma, but it is for good reason, as it matches one of the top-five teams in the country versus one of the bottom-five teams.
I already showed you the 14-0 SU and ATS trend for Week 0/1 huge favorites of -37.5 or higher in college football, but how about the thought that Akron returns just three offensive starters from the 2-10 team of a year ago that scored just 16.3 PPG. With as much talent as there is on the Buckeyes’ defense heading into 2024, how can a reasonable bettor even think that Akron will get the ball near the end zone all day long on Saturday?
This Ohio State team also has a chip on its shoulder for coming up short to Michigan in three straight seasons. The season has a legitimate “title or bust” mentality. QB Will Howard gives them some stability and dynamic ability on offense that was missing last year too. Look for a fast start in Columbus from head coach Ryan Day’s team.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 49-points with Ohio State
3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
There are a lot of people high on Miami’s prospects for 2024 and perhaps even higher on their chances to walk into Gainesville to get a win. At last check, 73% of the money handle and 80 of the bets were on the Hurricanes, according to the DraftKings splits numbers. We all know that isn’t good. It’s a very consistent losing proposition: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%).
I might be on a short list of people who actually see good things coming for the Gators this year. I wrote this in my season wager win bets article: I mentioned Hugh Freeze and the improvement his team made in the second season with Liberty when describing higher hopes for Auburn this fall. A very similar situation is in play for Billy Napier and Florida in 2024. Only this projection could be even brighter. Napier took Louisiana from 7-7 to 11-3, then 10-1 and 13-1. He did this by recruiting at a higher standard. Well, Florida just landed its most highly rated recruiting class in over a decade, the #7 national ranking, made up of a mix of recruits and transfers. This is exactly the momentum the Gators need to become relevant again in the SEC.
The Gators also bring back 14 starters from last year’s 5-7 team, one which lost three times by single-digit margins. There have been 92 teams over the last 11 seasons that have lost one or fewer games by 20 points or more in a given season but still finished with a losing record. Of the 62 that brought back 13 or more starters the next season, only 11 finished worse the next season. The average win improvement of this group was 2.5 per season. Florida qualifies for this angle. I have a hard time believing the Gators will be worse than last year, and if not, they go over the total, despite the tough schedule. I believe The Swamp will be the difference here.
College Football Best Bet: Take the +2.5-points and some money line action with Florida
3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Expectations are extremely high in Lincoln this season for Matt Rhule in his second season as Nebraska’s head coach. Are they warranted coming off a seventh straight sub-.500 season? Honestly, yes, there are many reasons for optimism. First off, this team brings back 17 starters and was only outscored by 0.3 PPG in 2023 against a tough schedule. Second, Matt Rhule’s second team at Temple went from 2-10 to 6-6, and his second team at Baylor improved from 1-11 to 7-6. If this Cornhuskers group was to improve by 4-6 games, we would be looking at a double-digit win type of year. Thirdly, while QB Heinrich Haarberg is back for 2024, Rhule saw enough in five-star recruit Dylan Raiola to name him the starter. He is the highest-rated recruit at the school in almost 20 years.
The first test is against a UTEP program that has gone 7-5-3 in wins the last three seasons, an obvious downward trend. That meant a coaching change, and Scotty Walden takes over after coming from FCS Austin Peay. Nebraska is favored big, but this team needs a big start as a confidence builder to start believing its lofty goals are realistic. Anything shy of a rout win and doubts could creep in from experts and fans alike.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 27.5-points with Nebraska in Lincoln
5:00 pm. ET (ESPN+)
South Alabama is expected to win by oddsmakers this week against North Texas, as those behind the counter have installed the Jaguars as 5.5-point home favorites. I’m not sure they understand my Stability System, however, as South Alabama has a first-time head coach in Major Applewhite and is bringing back just seven total starters from a 7-6 team. In fact, officially, this program has a stability score of zero heading into this game.
Teams with zero stability scores never do well throughout a season, and very few of them are favored in their openers. The underdog here is a North Texas team that was 5-7 last year for now second-year head coach Eric Morris. He has just 10 starters back, but his coaching staff is in place, and his offense figures to be able to score a lot of points again. The Mean Green averaged 34.5 last fall and turn to former TCU QB Chandler Morris to build on that effort. I love underdogs that can score. I love them even more when facing a highly unstable team.
College Football Best Bets: Take the 5.5 points with North Texas and perhaps a side ML wager
7:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Oddsmakers made things extremely difficult for Hawaii in the season opener last week versus Delaware State, installing the Warriors as 40+ point favorites. They came up well short in a 35-14 win, but it was a win nonetheless. It gave head coach Timmy Chang’s team some momentum as it prepares to host UCLA this Saturday.
It leads into a nice system for this game: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 34-16 ATS (68%) run.
Chang’s team has steadily progressed in his first two years as head coach. For 2024, a return to a bowl game is the goal. He has 15 starters back, including QB Brayden Schrager, who threw for 3500+ yards and 26 TD’s in 2023. The Bruins are a team of massive intrigue this season as they play their first season under first-time Head Coach DeShaun Foster. He has been the running backs coach at UCLA for the last seven years, but he will still be switching schemes under new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy.
The program will face a lot of travel miles as they transition to Big Ten play this fall. While coveted by the average vacationer, this trip to Hawaii is not easy for football teams. Hawaii is on a 13-6-1 ATS surge as a home dog. This is a tough line spot for a rebuilding UCLA team.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s take the 14-points with Hawaii
7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Is there any team that consistently challenges itself with bigger high-profile games in their season opener more than LSU? The Tigers let it all hang out in Week 1, particularly since head coach Brian Kelly took over. This is a high-profile program, and they want to be seen by a lot of eyes. This first game in Las Vegas against USC figures to be a very intriguing contest as the teams look to replace the top two picks in this past spring’s NFL draft at the QB position. The transition is way bigger for the Trojans, as they literally lived and died by how Caleb Williams fared. LSU is much better known for having studs on both sides of the ball.
There is a reason the Tigers are the favorite here to start the season in strong fashion. That is a key point, because, as I found in my Week 0/1 Betting Concepts piece I put together this week on VSiN, small favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run since 2013. My Power Rating numbers show LSU should be a 5.5-point favorite. I’ll take that bit of underpricing and run with it.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s lay the 4-points with LSU
For more College Football Week 1 predictions, visit the College Football Week 1 Hub at VSiN.com.
