Week 2 NFL Predictions:

Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived. We’ve had a lot of time to stare at these lines, which have moved around a bit as limits have increased and bettors are willing to start using their bankrolls on professional football. A lot of people won’t tie up money until the games are getting ready to go and, well, the games are getting ready to go.

My plan is to write up my NFL best bets on Tuesdays this season, both to spread out the number of best bet articles we have, but also to try and jump on some early-week numbers. There will be some guessing in terms of injury situations this early in the process, but sometimes that can help you get some line value if you read the tea leaves right.

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Here are my Week 2 NFL best bets:

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/10, 2:45 p.m. PT

Some bad beats really stick with you. As I started looking at the Week 2 NFL card, I couldn’t stop thinking about the Titans and how that game played out against the Bears. They say that the bad beats even out over the course of the season and you’ll get one back that you shouldn’t have won for every game that you should have. I don’t intend to keep count, but I sure hope so.

Anyway, it’s a new week and there are new opportunities. We’ve got one game and we’ve got some overreactions in the market, but also some injuries that have had a huge impact on how the games are lined. It’s all about trying to find the right numbers and hope the game plays out to your expectation.

Here are my Week 2 NFL predictions:

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

It seems as though Baker Mayfield and Liam Coen have clicked nicely. Sure, the Commanders are unlikely to have a top-tier defense, but there was a lot of easy pitch-and-catch between Baker and his wide receivers in Week 1. The Bucs QB was 24-of-30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns. The running game didn’t find a whole lot of room, but this is an indoor game and a good spot on the fast track for Baker and his guys to succeed.

The Lions picked up a nice win over the Rams, but needed overtime to do it in a game where LA was losing players left and right to the trainer’s tent. The Rams are clearly a better bet long-term than the Commanders, but it wasn’t the most impressive of efforts for the Lions, especially in pass defense.

The Bucs are going to run a lot of concepts similar to the Sean McVay offense, which is where Coen was an assistant for three years and the OC for one. Matthew Stafford threw for 317 yards despite losing Puka Nacua and having to more or less force the ball to Cooper Kupp, who finished the game with 21 targets.

Mayfield can spread the rock around and the Bucs defense doesn’t have to worry in the slightest about a mobile QB here after Jayden Daniels had 16 carries for 88 yards last week.

Pick: Buccaneers +7

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It wouldn’t be a Cleveland Browns season without a ton of drama. Not only did Deshaun Watson look positively awful last week, but news of a new sexual assault and battery allegation came through on Monday. At time of writing (Tuesday), the Browns and NFL had not publicly commented, but were looking at their options.

Whether Watson gets placed on the Restricted List, benched, or cut, it won’t have any impact on what I think about the Browns this week. Sure, I think they’d be better off with Jameis Winston as the starting QB and maybe that comes to fruition this week. (If it does, I’d take the Over here)

But, this team is not in great shape right now. The offensive line could get some assistance if Jack Conklin can go, but the tackle position is in a real state of flux. The David Njoku injury is a massive deal, as Jordan Akins is nowhere near the same receiver and the team is working out a bunch of tight ends who don’t really belong on NFL rosters.

For me, though, the key point here is the defense. Trevor Lawrence was fourth in average depth of target beyond the line of scrimmage last season. I don’t think the Browns have an answer for Brian Thomas Jr. or Christian Kirk. The Texans exploited Cleveland’s secondary in the Wild Card Round last season and Dak Prescott had success going vertical in Week 1. Unless Myles Garrett is a prominent factor, the Browns struggle in deep-ball coverage.

So, I think Lawrence can exploit that. The Browns offense is good at stopping themselves. I’ll lay it with the Jags, who absolutely played well enough to beat a much better Dolphins team last week.

Pick: Jaguars -3

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Giants are likely to be terrible, but Sam Darnold looked really efficient and it sure seems like Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips know how to deploy Aaron Jones. With a big lead early, the Vikes held back a bit of the playbook in the 28-6 win over the Giants. Darnold wound up only throwing 24 times and the team only ran 51 offensive plays. It was a pretty slow-paced game on the whole with Minnesota’s good start.

I have a few concerns for the 49ers here. The first is that they do have the long travel and early kickoff here in Week 2, as everybody is still trying to get into game shape. The second is that Vikings DC Brian Flores blitzes with reckless abandon. Brock Purdy didn’t seem to have his timing down with Brandon Aiyuk and it seems unlikely that Christian McCaffrey is able to go this week and be a consistent safety valve in the passing game.

The Jets were 60% against the 49ers defense on third down, but couldn’t get a hold of the ball long enough to sustain drives outside of their first one. San Francisco ran 21 more plays and really took the air out of it. I think the Vikings are plenty capable of spreading the 49ers out and Darnold has a good grasp of the offense based on the early returns, which is hardly a surprise with somebody like O’Connell.

Maybe the 49ers do win the game, but I don’t see them running away and hiding, plus I could see a slow start. Minnesota scored first against the Giants and O’Connell has scored the first touchdown (Tracker) in 23 of 36 games as the Vikings head coach.

Pick: Vikings +6